Opposition Leader Sussan Ley insists she has the overwhelming support of her party room after striking a deal with the Nationals to restore the coalition, but another opinion poll shocker could prove fatal.
Reunited after a bitter, almost three-week split sparked by a disagreement over hate speech laws, the long-term partners were stronger together and were focused on holding the Labor government to account, Ms Ley said.
Mending the coalition partnership could also give her some breathing room to reassert her leadership of the Liberal Party after the separation amplified rumblings of a potential challenge.
But with Nationals frontbenchers returning to the shadow cabinet, it also means Ms Ley can no longer offer promotions to key Liberals to shore up her position.
Asked about the prospects of a challenge, Ms Ley said she was “very confident of the overwhelming support of my party room”.
“They elected me nine months ago to lead,” she said on Sunday.
“I said then I was up for the job. I’m up for the job now.”
Former shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has firmed as a potential challenger after fellow leadership aspirant Andrew Hastie bowed out of the race.
With both men vying for the backing of the Liberals’ conservative wing, Mr Hastie’s withdrawal cleared the runway for Mr Taylor by averting a split in the right-faction vote.
Liberal sources said they thought Mr Taylor could move a spill as soon as the coming week if opinion polls showed the coalition falling even further behind One Nation.
On Sunday night, a Newspoll survey published in The Australian showed the coalition’s primary vote plumbing a new low of 17 per cent, down from 21 per cent in mid-January.
One Nation surged to 27 per cent – a record high and within six per cent of Labor.
Recent opinion polling by Redbridge and DemosAU also had One Nation ahead or on par with the coalition.
Ms Ley also flagged the party would soon announce its immigration principles.
Expected by the end of February, it is likely to spell out an intention to lower Australia’s migration intake below current levels in a bid to stem the flow of voters to One Nation.
But that could prove too late to save her leadership.
Mr Taylor failed to put rumours of a spill to bed on Friday, telling Sydney radio station 2GB he did have leadership ambitions.
Pressed on whether Ms Ley would still be leader in a week, he said a coup was not in the works but conceded he had been having conversations with his colleagues about the party’s future.