According to a new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The latest data, compiled in January, shows that drug overdose deaths increased by approximately 1,400 in the previous 12 months. “This small increase reflects historical data indicating that drug overdose deaths in January 2025 will be higher than in January 2024,” the CDC said in a statement to NPR. “We are conducting analyses to better understand geographic trends.” CDC data shows that approximately 82,138 people died in the 12 months ending in January 2025. This figure represents a significant increase from the December 2024 report, but remains well below the peak of 114,664 drug overdose deaths recorded in August 2023. Despite this, some addiction researchers have expressed concern over the report after a surprising 17-month decline in drug-related deaths, and a record 27% drop in drug-related deaths in 2024.
Stanford University researcher Keith Humphreys suggests the new CDC data could be an early warning sign that the downward trend in drug-related deaths, driven by a combination of factors including the end of disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and the diminishing potency of fentanyl sold on the streets of the United States, may be waning. “If we assume this isn’t a transient phenomenon, then this makes the sudden drop (in fatal overdoses) more likely a one-off event than a fundamental shift in pandemic dynamics,” Humphreys said in an email. In the United States, most drug overdose deaths are caused by fentanyl, but researchers sampling street drug supplies warn that dealers are selling an increasingly dangerous mix of chemicals, including cocaine and methamphetamine, as well as veterinary sedatives such as medemidin and muzocin. “The drug overdose trend is not one-way; there will be cyclical, localized increases,” said Nabarun Dasgupta of the University of North Carolina, who studies drug overdose trends. His analysis of the latest CDC data suggests that “most of the country is still declining in the right direction.” According to Dasgupta, “the projected national increase is primarily driven by rises in Texas, Arizona, California, and Washington.” Is this a temporary fluctuation or a worrying new trend? Drug death data in the United States is collected slowly and released to the public after significant delays. Experts say that reports like this, containing the latest available preliminary data from January, only provide a rough snapshot of the current drug situation on the streets. CDC officials say that “fluctuations” in drug overdose deaths could be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in the supply of illicit drugs and changes in access to treatment. This CDC data was collected before President Trump took office or his policies took effect. However, the significant rise in drug deaths comes at a time when the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are trying to cut spending on addiction-related public health and science programs, as well as funding for Medicaid, which is currently the largest source of insurance coverage for people experiencing addiction in the United States. “The United States remains in the midst of an extremely deadly crisis of addiction and overdose,” said Dr. Stephen Taylor, president of the American Academy of Addiction Medicine, in response to the latest CDC data. “Reducing federal support for Medicaid—the largest payer for mental health and substance use disorder treatment—would be a sign of retreat,” Taylor added.
Regina LaBelle, who served as acting director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy under President Biden and now studies addiction policy at Georgetown University, expressed similar concerns, but hoped the report was just a temporary fluctuation, given the previously steadily improving drug-related deaths.