Barnaby Joyce’s defection to One Nation will hand the minor party an “easy” Senate victory, but the relationship might end in tears.
The former deputy prime minister and New England MP has formalised his move from the Nationals to the Pauline Hanson-led party after weeks of speculation.
He will sit in the House of Representatives for the rest of the parliamentary term as a One Nation MP, before leading the far-right party’s Senate ticket for NSW.
Although polling is at an all-time high for One Nation, it might be inflated as minor-party surges typically soften once an election nears, Australian National University political expert Jill Sheppard says.
But there are two factors giving Mr Joyce a strong chance of securing a Senate seat.
“One Nation won a Senate seat in their own right in May this year in NSW, so the support is clearly there,” Dr Sheppard said.
“Many voters won’t know most names on the Senate ballot, but they’ll know (Mr Joyce’s), and that’s a huge advantage.”
Mr Joyce won’t shy away from using his public profile to his advantage, Dr Sheppard said.
“There will be some voters who will follow Barnaby wherever he goes. The coalition will be polling desperately right now to find out how many,” she said.
Recent polling shows the number of people planning to put One Nation first on their ballot paper is high, with surveys putting support for the party between 14 and 18 per cent.
A Resolve poll said 29 per cent of voters would be more likely to support the party if it were led by Mr Joyce.
There has been speculation Mr Joyce will eventually replace the 71-year-old One Nation leader, although neither has confirmed a succession plan is in place.
Dr Sheppard said Senator Hanson’s dominance over her party could make the relationship volatile, and doubts the “marriage will last”.
“One Nation is Pauline Hanson’s baby,” she said.
“She’s taken her name off the official party registration, which seems to indicate that she’s looking for a transition plan, but it’s also very hard to give up the reins.
“I think either Barnaby becomes leader very quickly and Hanson will have to step out of public life totally, or maybe they’ll find a way to work together.”
Mr Joyce said he understands his decision will hurt some, but called Senator Hanson a “fellow traveller” with similar views on net zero and immigration.
“I think One Nation are very authentic in how they deliver a strong message,” he told Sky News.
“They support pensioners, not the Paris Agreement.”