The biggest loser of the Hungarian election has been overshadowed by blockade brinkmanship and Trump’s god complex. It’s Israel, writes Michael Pascoe.
There were plenty of losers in Hungary on Sunday night. Orban himself, obviously, but after the past 16 years of corruptly stuffing the pockets of friends and family, the 62-year-old can be expected to do just fine.
Trump also lost after so boldly backing his kindred spirit with words, a Vice President and the promise of American funds. More broadly, as Dutton found here, being seen as Trumpy doesn’t work well overseas.
Putin was a major loser,
Orban being his man in the EU, blocking support for Ukraine, and leaking EU information to Russia. Correction: gushing, not leaking.
Xi will also miss him. Hungary is China’s best friend within the EU, an investment beachhead, sympatico right down to signing an agreement in 2024 for Chinese police assistance. Though the proposed Chinese police never seemed to arrive.
Unlike the others, the value of Chinese investment to the new Hungarian government is likely to live on, and Beijing is nothing if not pragmatic.
Tony Abbott, a long-time fan of Orban-style Christian nationalism, was saddened and displayed ignorance on X of how relatively poorly Hungary’s economy has fared. Tones possibly likes to count himself among Orban’s “conservative intellectuals”.
Viktor Orbán has been a very consequential PM – probably the most consequential Hungary has ever had. The economy has strengthened, the city of Budapest has been transformed, and Hungary’s family policies and determination to keep its culture have been studied around the world.…
— Tony Abbott (@HonTonyAbbott) April 13, 2026
The biggest loser!
But these losers pale beside the biggest loser: Benjamin Netanyahu.
With Orban losing, Netanyahu has lost the war.
Oh, Israel is still winning at killing people, and it will continue to win one-sided battles and claim victories for bombing and bulldozing towns and hospitals and schools and terrorising cities, never mind that it’s mainly killing civilians, women and children, along with journalists, doctors, medics, aid workers and the occasional UN peacekeeper.
But it is losing the war by isolating itself, losing its support and friends, pushing the world towards instituting genuine sanctions.
Orban was Netanyahu’s protector in Europe.
Just as Hungary blocked further European sanctions against Russia and loans to Ukraine, it has used its veto on Israel’s behalf, blocking sanctions and EU criticism.
The EU requires unanimity of its 26 members for action. It only takes one to stop action, and that one was Orban’s Hungary.
With Orban gone, the way is open for Europe as a bloc to move against Israel’s colonisation of the West Bank and wars in Lebanon and Palestine.
Europe’s shifting stance
There is a range of official attitudes in Europe towards Israel, from Spain and Ireland at one end to Hungary at the other, but the shift has been in one direction. Even Germany, racked with Holocaust guilt, has retreated from unconditional support, reducing arms sales as a majority of Germans see the Gaza destruction as unjustified or genocide.
It is possible that the Israel lobby could cultivate an Orban replacement, one way or another, but whither Europe, others will follow.
Australia, for example.
It took the company of the UK, Portugal and Canada for Australia to recognise the State of Palestine last year.
Should, say, Europe sanction all West Bank settlers for their illegal occupation as the Palestinian death toll rises, Australia might be inclined to follow instead of its present stance of singling out a bare handful of individuals.
As long as Israel keeps killing, the more it loses.
Of course, none of this matters as long as Netanyahu has the United States on a string through Trump (“Hey Donald, let’s attack Iran!”) and holds sway over American politics more broadly. The multiple billions of dollars, the UN vetos and the bombs, missiles and planes keep coming, and the Israel lobby remains immensely strong.
Americans’ support on the wane
But Israel is losing the war in the US as well. It still owns the government, but it has lost the people. Commentator Mike Mangan highlights the relevant Pew Research opinion polling in his latest newsletter, calling it an epic fail as the percentage of Americans favourably disposed towards Israel has plunged from 55% in October 2023 to just 37% now.
The figures are worse for Netanyahu among Democrats, 80% of whom have either an unfavourable or very unfavourable view.
“Meanwhile, 57% of Republicans under the age of 50 & 41% of Republicans overall, now view Israel negatively,” Mangan wrote.
“Israel cannot survive without a US backstop. Yet that support collapses with every bombed Beirut apartment block.”
Perhaps more worrying than the loss of support by Democrat voters is the rise of alt-right antisemitic MAGA youth, as profiled ($) in this week’s New Yorker, a White House staffer telling Antonia Hitchens:
This is where the MAGA civil war starts—you’re either America First or pro-Israel.
The US launching a war on Iran at Israel’s urging fanned the anti-Israel flames within MAGA.
“Prominent conservatives, such as Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson, and Steve Bannon, had been arguing since the start of Trump’s second term that MAGA was being displaced by what some called MIGA—Make Israel Great Again,” writes Hitchens.
“The President, this faction argued, was too cowed by hawkish interventionists like Mark Levin, a neoconservative commentator. Then it emerged that (Charlie) Kirk himself had started to have doubts about the U.S.-Israel relationship, prompting a bloom of online conspiracy theories.”
A sidelight of the Iran disaster has been Trump crowing that the US no longer needs Middle East oil. The MAGA brigade can reasonably ask what’s in it for America then to maintain a score of military bases and between 40,000 and 50,000 personnel across the Middle East, never mind deploying the odd carrier task force.
Given Trump’s polling, the MAGA schism, and despite the Democrats’ ability to shoot themselves, it is probable that the Republicans will lose the midterms, and the next administration will not be MAGA.
With that prospect, it is not a good time for Netanyahu to lose his European protector in Orban and a weakening outlook for kindred souls elsewhere.
Netanyahu is even more dependent on America, an America that is changing and already proven to have no regard for trashing treaties, deals and allies.
Losing Orban now and Trump next, Netanyahu loses the war.
Name it, blame it, shame it. Israel and Trump must be stopped