China’s trade surplus topped $US1 ($A1.5) trillion for the first time as manufacturers seeking to avoid President Donald Trump’s tariffs shipped more to non-US markets in November, with exports to Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia surging.
Shipments to the United States dropped by close to one-third from the same month a year before.
“The tariff cuts agreed under the US-China trade truce didn’t help to lift shipments to the US last month, but overall export growth rebounded nonetheless,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
“We expect China’s exports will remain resilient, with the country continuing to gain global market share next year.
“The role of trade rerouting in offsetting the drag from US tariffs still appears to be increasing.”
Chinese exports overall grew 5.9 per cent year-on-year in November, customs data on Monday showed a reversal from October’s 1.1 per cent contraction and beating a 3.8 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll.
Imports were up 1.9 per cent, compared with a 1.0 per cent uptick in October. Economists had expected a 3.0 per cent increase.
China’s trade surplus was $US111.68 billion ($A168.33 billion) in November, the highest since June and up from $US90.07 billion ($A135.76 billion) recorded the previous month.
That was above a forecast of $US100.2 billion ($A151.0 billion).
The trade surplus for the 11 months of the year topped $US1 ($A1.5) trillion for the first time.
China has stepped up efforts to diversify its export markets since Trump won the November 2024 US election, pursuing closer trade ties with Southeast Asia and the European Union.
It has also leveraged Chinese firms’ global footprint to establish new production hubs for low-tariff access.
Chinese shipments to the United States dropped 29 per cent year-on-year in November, while exports to the European Union grew by an annual 14.8 per cent.
Shipments to Australia surged 35.8 per cent, and the fast-growing Southeast Asian economies took in 8.2 per cent more goods over the same period.
Tumbling exports to the US came despite news that the world’s two biggest economies had agreed to scale back some of their tariffs and a raft of other measures after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea on October 30.
The average US tariff on Chinese goods stands at 47.5 per cent, well above the 40 per cent threshold that economists say erodes Chinese exporters’ profit margins.
“Electronic machinery and semiconductors seem to be key (to higher exports),” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.
“There is a shortage in lower-grade chips and other electronics, which meant prices jumped, and Chinese companies going global have been importing all kinds of machinery and other inputs from China.”
China’s yuan firmed on Monday, off the back of the stronger-than-expected export data, with investors also awaiting policy signals from key year-end meetings.
The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, pledged on Monday to take steps to expand domestic demand, a shift analysts say is crucial for weaning the $US19 ($A29) trillion economy away from reliance on exports.
Top officials are also expected to convene for the annual Central Economic Work Conference in the coming days to set key targets and outline policy priorities for next year.
Economists estimate that diminished access to the US market since Trump returned to the White House has reduced China’s export growth by roughly 2.0 percentage points, equivalent to around 0.3 per cent of GDP.