The betting markets favour the US president and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But the most vital work to secure peace is being done by those far from the spotlight
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Haakon Gjerløw is the acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo
The Nobel peace prize is not a contest determined by fame. Yet the betting markets consistently gravitate towards the biggest names in global politics – among them this year, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
That misses what the prize is for. The real work of building peace is often done far from the headlines: by courts that uphold international law, journalists who document atrocities, and humanitarian organisations that protect communities. With the 2026 prize due to be announced on 9 October, the Nobel committee has an opportunity to remind the world that peace is built through institutions and cooperation, not just diplomatic grandstanding.