More heatwave-related deaths, longer droughts in some areas and more frequent flooding are being forecast in a landmark government report outlining the risks rising global temperatures pose to Australia.
The National Climate Risk Assessment warns no community will be spared from the impacts of climate change, suggesting the effects will span across areas as diverse as agriculture, health and national security.
“Future changes in Australia’s climate will not occur gradually or smoothly,” the report’s overview warns.
The first-of-its-kind document modelled how global warming will impact individual communities, the nation’s economy and the environment under three different scenarios of warming.
Experts believe the Australian continent is already 1.5C hotter than it was before the industrial revolution.
If global temperatures increase by an average of 3C compared to pre-industrial levels, the report predicts a dramatic spike in the number of Australians who will die during heatwaves.
Under that scenario, it warns the number of heatwave-related deaths could skyrocket by more than 400 per cent in Sydney and more than 250 per cent in Melbourne.
Floods are also expected to become more frequent as sea levels rise.
Tropical cyclones are forecast to hit Australia less often, but there is a possibility they will become more severe and shift slightly farther south.
Some of the national forecasts are also highly uncertain. Under 3C of warming, the amount of time spent in drought, for example, is given a range spanning from a 15 per cent reduction to an 89 per cent increase. Forecasts at a local level are more precise.
The government is also releasing the National Adaptation Plan, a separate report outlining how Australia can mitigate some of the risks posed by global warming.
But it warns some risks, like sea level rises, are unavoidable and Australians will have to learn to live with the change.